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☆ Interest-rate cuts could be coming this fall, adding another wrinkle to an election set to focus on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In today's big story, inflation is cooling just in time for a US presidential election that will likely focus heavily on the economy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The big storyThe economy and the electionAnna Moneymaker/Getty, Anna Moneymaker/Getty, Tyler Le/BISometimes, the biggest surprise is when there isn't one at all. AdvertisementOn Wednesday, Biden and Trump agreed to face off in two debates, the first coming in June . Now he has 18 direct reports, according to an internal org chart seen by Business Insider.

Persons: —, Anna Moneymaker, Tyler Le, haven't, Insider's Madison Hoff, they're, Jennifer Sor, Ed Yardeni, Jerome Powell hasn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, Trump's, Alyssa Powell, Keith Gill's, Jim Simons, Shaw, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Sameer Samat, Sundar Pichai, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Biden, White, Democratic, Renaissance Technologies, Sigma, Bloomberg, Android, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart Locations: New York, London

☆ Gold drifts higher as rising Fed rate cut expectations boost appeal
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,388.10 per ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after gaining more than 1% to its highest since April 19 on Wednesday. "Following the April consumer price index data, the odds for a potential September rate cut have firmed, which suits the gold price from a yield perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. However, a potential bounce in the dollar or treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for gold price in the remainder of the week." Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Persons: Tim Waterer, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, KCM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .

☆ This is the sweet spot in bonds right now, according to Wells Fargo — and it can yield up to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As investors navigate the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer interest rate policy — and eventual rate cuts down the road — they should make sure they have their fixed-income portfolio positioned properly, according to Wells Fargo. The Fed last raised rates in July 2023, bringing the fed funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. But investors were buoyed by news Wednesday that the consumer price index showed inflation eased slightly in April. Right now, Wells Fargo anticipates two rate cuts this year and just one in 2025, bringing the Fed's target rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% by the end of next year, said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Investors can get exposure to intermediate-term bonds through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Wells, Scott Wren, Wren Organizations: Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Why mortgages and credit card rates could stay high through 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

If you were holding out for lower interest rates on credits cards or mortgages, expect to only see modest relief for the remainder of the year and much of 2025. That's because the Federal Reserve is keeping its benchmark interest rate steady to discourage borrowing, which it will do until there's more evidence that inflation is under control. While the annual inflation rate has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, it's been hovering closer to 3% for the past 10 months. The year-over-year inflation rate is now 3.4% — down slightly from 3.5% in March. For that reason, the central bank is expected to keep interest rates relatively high well into 2025.

Persons: it's, That's, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Nasdaq closes at record high; Google launches new AI model
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Nasdaq rose to a record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 126 points. Meme craze coolsShares of GameStop and AMC rose on Tuesday, extending Monday's gains after "Roaring Kitty" made a reappearance. Shares, however, gave up some of their earlier gains, suggesting enthusiasm for the so-called meme stocks was fading. Powell: Inflation falling slowlyFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was not slowing as quickly as anticipated, requiring the central bank to maintain its current interest rates for longer.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Alibaba, Powell, CNBC's Yun Li Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, GameStop, AMC, Biden, AMC Entertainment Locations: Hangzhou, New York, China, Amsterdam

☆ Japan’s economy contracts in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Tokyo Reuters —Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, squeezed by weaker consumption and external demand and throwing a fresh challenge to policymakers as the central bank looks to lift interest rates away from near-zero levels. The reading translates into a quarterly contraction of 0.5%, versus a 0.4% decline expected by economists. “Japan’s economy hit the bottom in the first quarter,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “The economy will certainly rebound this quarter thanks to rising wages although uncertainty remains on service consumption.”Capital spending, a key driver of private demand, fell 0.8% in the first quarter, versus an expected decline of 0.7%, despite hefty corporate earnings. External demand, or exports minus imports, knocked 0.3 of a percentage point off first quarter GDP estimates.

Persons: Downwardly, ”, Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Tokyo Reuters, Nikko Securities, ”, Daihatsu, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, “, Noto, Toyota’s

☆ Live Updates: Inflation Cooled Slightly, Offering Some Relief for Consumers and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +6 min

But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.

Persons: “, ”, Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Gold prices flat as U.S. inflation data takes centre-stage
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices traded flat on Wednesday as investors looked forward to a critical U.S. inflation print that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut trajectory. Spot gold held its ground at $2,359.99 per ounce, as of 0704 GMT, trading in a narrow $6 range, after gaining 1% on Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, the data is expected to show that core inflation in April rose 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.4% the prior month. Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. However, data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Bullion, Jerome Powell Organizations: Fort, BHP Group Locations: Fort Knox Alaska, Kinross, Tetlin , Alaska, ., U.S, American

☆ China's economy reveals pockets of softness. Here's what to watch ahead of Friday's data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.

Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, —, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Treasury yields fall ahead of fresh consumer inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.8061% after falling by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday is investors considered the outlook for inflationary pressures and awaited the latest consumer price index data. The producer price index for April, which tracks wholesale prices, came in higher than expected on Tuesday. This comes ahead of the consumer price index for April which is expected to be released Wednesday. On an annual basis, inflation is anticipated to slow slightly to 3.4% from 3.5% in March.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Core CPI

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Nasdaq at record high; Google boosts AI ambitions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meme craze coolsShares of GameStop and AMC rose on Tuesday, extending Monday's gains after "Roaring Kitty" made a reappearance. Shares, however, gave up some of their earlier gains, suggesting enthusiasm for the so-called meme stocks was fading. Powell: Inflation falling slowlyFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was not slowing as quickly as anticipated, requiring the central bank to maintain its current interest rates for longer.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Australia's, CNBC's Yun Li Organizations: Google Gemini, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, GameStop, AMC, Biden, Sony, China's CSI, AMC Entertainment Locations: Brussels, Belgium, China, Amsterdam, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, South Korea

☆ Malaysia won't use interest rates to prop up the ringgit, says central bank deputy chief
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Malaysia will not use monetary policy as a tool to shore up its currency, according to the central bank's deputy governor. Bank Negara's Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid said the country's monetary policy decisions will be determined by economic growth and the inflation outlook. The ringgit currently does not reflect Malaysia's economic fundamentals and growth prospects, Bank Negara said in a statement last week. This has been fueled by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could hold interest rates higher-for-longer as inflation remains sticky. Adnan Zaylani said the central bank expects the U.S. interest rate cycle to turn at "some point in time," which will then reflect on the "ringgit performance."

Persons: Bank Negara's Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid, CNBC's, Adnan Zaylani Organizations: Bank, Bank Negara, Korean, U.S ., U.S . Federal Locations: Malaysia

☆ Fed’s Powell is unfazed by the latest hot inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Tuesday’s wholesale inflation data, which jumped to its highest rate in a year, certainly wasn’t a source of comfort. “I wouldn’t call it hot, I would call it sort of mixed,” Powell said Tuesday, referring to the new wholesale inflation data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (center) spoke Tuesday at an event hosted by the Foreign Bankers' Association alongside European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot. Another troubling sign for US central bankers is consumers’ belief that inflation will move higher in the year ahead, according to two surveys Fed officials monitor closely. That can lead to higher prices.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Price, ” Powell, ”, Klaas, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Foreign Bankers ’ Association, European Central Bank Governing, Federal, Foreign Bankers, Association alongside European Central Bank Governing, Foreign Bankers Amsterdam, ” Locations: New York

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge up as traders digest wholesale inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major indexes were slightly higher after the data as investors assessed the impact on rate cut outlooks. April's producer price index data beat estimates, gaining 0.5% for the month against 0.3% consensus estimates. The PPI data comes a day before Wednesday's consumer price index and will give investors a broader frame of reference. If CPI data is equally hot, the stuttering stock rally could face even more negative consequences. The 10-year Treasury briefly topped 4.5% after the PPI data before slipping by about one basis point to 4.465.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Chris Zaccarelli, Keith Gill Organizations: Service, PPI, Independent, Federal, GameStop, AMC, Treasury, Here's

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to bankers group in Amsterdam
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday to the annual general meeting of the Foreign Bankers' Association in Amsterdam. Policymakers remain concerned that inflation is not showing enough evidence that it is moving toward the Fed's 2% annual target. Recent data points have shown prices both at the consumer and wholesale levels running hotter than expected while consumer sentiment also has shown elevated expectations over the short term. Markets still expect the Fed to lower rates later this year, and Powell said following the FOMC meeting that he thinks it unlikely that rates will increase from here.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Read Organizations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in, Market, CNBC, YouTube Locations: Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ Powell says inflation has been higher than thought and expects rates to hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected and will keep the central bank on hold for an extended period. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected," Powell said. While he expects inflation to come down through the year, he noted that hasn't happened so far. "I do think it's really a question of keeping policy at the current rate for longer than had been thought," he said. "I think it's more likely that we'll be at a place where we hold the policy rate where it is."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell Organizations: Treasury Department, Federal, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Locations: Washington , DC, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI also increased 0.5% compared to the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. Core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters . Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Commerce, York

☆ JPMorgan's trading desk lays out 6 scenarios for tomorrow's inflation report, and how the stock market will react to each of them
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Wednesday release of the April CPI report has the potential to shake up the stock market. A cool inflation report would bode well for interest rate cuts from the Fed and vice versa if it's hotter than expected. JPMorgan laid out six scenarios for April CPI and how the stock market could react to each. The coming inflation report is set to market-shaking because it will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might move forward with interest rate cuts. At the start of the year, the market was pricing in as many as seven interest rate cuts, but that has dwindled to just two rate cuts before year-end.

Persons: bode, —, Defensives outperforming, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler, Tyler, Immaculate Disinflation Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, China PPI Locations: China

☆ Russia's economy can't avoid a crisis forever and it's becoming more vulnerable to shocks, think tank researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewRussia's economy is fragile and policymakers won't be able to stave off a crisis for very long, a think tank researcher argued in a post on Tuesday. AdvertisementRussia's economy has flashed key signs of weaknesses since the West first began imposing sanctions on the nation in 2022. And high interest rates, necessitated by all that inflation, stifle investment in productivity and further distort the economy," Kolyandr said. AdvertisementOther experts have noted that Russia faces a dilemma as it juggles managing its economy and prolonging its war against Ukraine. According to one European economist, the nation has become dependent on war for economic growth, and it can't afford to win or lose the war.

Persons: —, Alexander Kolyandr, Kolyandr, Putin Organizations: Service, Centre for, Kremlin, Business Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Central, Russia, West, Europe

☆ What Forecasters Say About Interest Rates (and Why They Disagree)
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

How soon is soon? As the year started, there was a widespread view among economists and on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in the first half of the year. It was called “the pivot party,” and everyone was invited. And it seems the pivot party has been canceled. But some experts argue that it has only been postponed, leaving forecasters divided about what the rest of the year will bring.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Financial

Wall Street is increasingly divided over whether the Fed will cut interest rates by Election Day. New inflation data out this week will go a long way toward settling that question, as polls show that President Biden is struggling to convince voters that he’s done a good job on the economy. A first-quarter uptick in inflation has forced the Fed to keep borrowing costs at a 23-year high. Economists see a slight improvement, forecasting that April’s Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday will show that inflation moderated slightly last month. (Economists will also be watching Tuesday’s Producer Price Index and retail sales data on Wednesday.)

Persons: Biden, he’s, Sarah House, ” Organizations: Fed Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Australia's budget is expected to target housing crisis as prices keep climbing
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Vivien Soo | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Recent reports indicate that Australian home prices are set to continue their upward trend, driven by increasing migration rates and a shortage of housing supply. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is set to deliver the budget on Tuesday, which is expected to focus on addressing the nation's housing crisis. The Albanese government has already said it plans to allocate 88.8 million Australian dollars ($58.7 million) to train 20,000 local workers for the construction and housing sector. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) said Australia's limited housing supply has been further stretched by a number of factors, including "the resumption of migration at pace, rising interest rates, skills shortages, elevated construction company insolvencies, weak consumer confidence and cost inflation." She also said high housing prices have "ugly" long-term effects.

Persons: Andrew Merry, Eliza Owen, Jim Chalmers, Albanese, Peter Dutton, Owen, CoreLogic's Owen Organizations: Australia, Reserve Bank, Australian Bureau, Statistics, CoreLogic, ABS, Housing Supply, Authorities, Australian Bureau of Statistics Locations: North Bondi, Sydney, Australia, CoreLogic Australia

☆ These 'virtuous' stocks with high dividend growth and strong cash flow are primed for outperformance, Wolfe Research says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Against this backdrop, Wolfe Research screened for stocks that can help investors navigate a still challenging macroeconomic backdrop. "One of our favorite dividend strategies is to buy companies with a virtuous combination of (1) high dividend growth, and (2) a high free cash flow yield," Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek wrote. Johnson & Johnson was one of the companies that made the cut. Johnson & Johnson also said earlier in May it would spend $6.5 billion to resolve all outstanding litigation in the U.S. tied to claims its talc power caused ovarian cancer. JNJ YTD mountain Johnson & Johnson stock.

Persons: isn't, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Johnson, Enrique Lores, it's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wolfe Research, Wall, Johnson, HP Inc, HP, Constellation Energy, Constellation, eBay, Vistra Energy Locations: U.S, Johnson

☆ Why a debt-fueled US economy is facing a hard landing in 2025, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

According to the Apollo chief economist, that's because current strength stems from high debt loads, both among US consumers and the corporate world. Slok pointed out that delinquencies are rising on credit cards and auto loans, despite an economy with low unemployment. But while that keeps a hard landing on the table, the next few quarters will still deliver solid performance, he said. Advertisement"We still have behind us a very strong tailwind. We still have strong spending in the pipeline from the Chips Act, Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Act."

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok Organizations: Service, Apollo, Business, Bloomberg, Fitch, Reserve Locations: headwinds

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors brace for key inflation reports: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures flickered near the flatline Monday evening as Wall Street braced for the release of key inflation reports. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.08%. Another market catalyst will emerge Tuesday morning as the first of two key inflation reports will be released. "It's not unusual for Wall Street and Main Street to see the economy differently — the different perspective stems from different points of focus. Stock market movements are based on expectations of future economic performance, not necessarily current conditions," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Brent Schutte Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, New York Federal Reserve, PPI, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management

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